There's the Pacific Ocean in a Cup of Coffee and a Slice of Mango

The discussions around coffee, cocoa, rice, and sugar often follow the news about El Niño, primarily because major producing regions are sensitive to changes in rainfall and temperature. Vietnam's Robusta coffee is affected by drought and irrigation issues, while Brazil's Arabica coffee is influenced by the timing of rainfall and high temperatures during the flowering period. In Southeast Asia, rice production is determined by monsoon patterns and the status of reservoirs. Crops like maize in Southern Africa, which depend heavily on rain, are particularly vulnerable to drought during the growing season.

In the ocean, the Peruvian anchovy can experience changes in its food web and fish locations due to warmer waters and weakened upwelling. By following tangible commodities like mangoes and sugarcane, and even cocoa from West Africa, we can explore how climate affects production and distribution, eventually reflecting in consumer prices. However, prices are also influenced by inventory, exchange rates, as well as policies and logistics, so fluctuations cannot be solely attributed to El Niño.

When assessing the impacts on food items, it's essential to check the production regions and growing seasons before looking at the item names. Even with the same El Niño occurrence, some regions may experience drought while others receive more rain. Additionally, outcomes can vary within the same country based on factors like crop size and irrigation conditions. A suitable dry season can aid flowering for mangoes, but extreme heat and moisture shortages can hinder fruit set, proving that a warm climate does not automatically result in poor harvests.

Consumer prices are not directly determined by the weather in producing areas. Previous harvest inventories, export restrictions, exchange rates, transportation costs, and yield from other producing countries can either mitigate or exacerbate the situation. For seafood, resource assessments and fishing quotas are also critical. To anticipate basket prices while watching ENSO forecasts, it’s important to also consider production data from the FAO and local institutions, as well as international inventories and policies.